US Retail May 2022

Retail sales fell seasonally adjusted 0.3% m/m in May (April: +0.7% m/m). The result was the worst performance since December 2021 and fell short of market expectations of a slight uptick. The figure suggests that years of high inflation could affect consumer spending habits. The figure was partly driven by deteriorating sales of vehicles and parts from dealers amid vehicle shortages. In contrast, food and beverage sales have rebounded. Finally, non-store retailers and gas stations increased their sales growth due to higher fuel prices (since retail sales data are presented in nominal terms).

On an annualized basis, retail sales grew at a faster pace of 8.1% in May (April: +7.8% y/y). Meanwhile, the trend was downward, with CAGR of 14.0% in May compared to 15.7% in April.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast experts predict that private consumption will grow by 3.1% in 2022, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than last month’s forecast. In 2023, the group predicts a 2.1% increase in private consumption.