Inflation expectations one year ahead at the end of June

Headline CPI inflation on an annualized basis is expected to be lower from the current year, ranging from 4.2% to 6.8%.

Figure 1: Year-on-year CPI inflation (black), median expected based on Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue+), median expected based on Michigan Consumer Survey (red), median based on Fed Consumer Expectations Survey (light -green), forecast from the Cleveland Fed (pink), average from the Coibion-Gorodnichenko survey of company expectations [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, New York Fed, Cleveland FRB as well as Koibion ​​and Gorodnichenko.

Note that while professional forecasters (averaged) forecasts typically show less margin of error and lower standard error, they have not done so in the last year and a half (mail). Learn more about forecasts and coverage here. Detailed information on inflation expectations of firms/households from Weber, D’Acunto, Gorodnichenko and Coibion in a recent article.