Headline CPI inflation on an annualized basis is expected to be lower from the current year, ranging from 4.2% to 6.8%.
Figure 1: Year-on-year CPI inflation (black), median expected based on Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue+), median expected based on Michigan Consumer Survey (red), median based on Fed Consumer Expectations Survey (light -green), forecast from the Cleveland Fed (pink), average from the Coibion-Gorodnichenko survey of company expectations [light blue squares]. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, New York Fed, Cleveland FRB as well as Koibion and Gorodnichenko.
Note that while professional forecasters (averaged) forecasts typically show less margin of error and lower standard error, they have not done so in the last year and a half (mail). Learn more about forecasts and coverage here. Detailed information on inflation expectations of firms/households from Weber, D’Acunto, Gorodnichenko and Coibion in a recent article.
