on Estimated risk per 24.06.2022 10:09:00
Census Bureau reports New home sales in May were 696,000 seasonally adjusted (SAAR).
The previous three months have been revised upward in the aggregate.
Sales of New Single-Family Homes in May 2022 seasonally adjusted annual rate 696,000, according to estimates released today jointly by the US Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 10.7% higher than the revised April figure of 629,000 but 5.9% below the May 2021 estimate of 740,000.
The first chart shows new home sales compared to the recession since 1963. The dotted line is the current level of sales.
New home sales are now at pre-pandemic levels.
The second graph shows the months of new home supply.
The record high level of shipments was 12.1 months in January 2009. The record low was 3.5 months, most recently in October 2020.
This is well above the upper end of the normal range (normal supply is 4 to 6 months).
“A seasonally adjusted estimate of new homes for sale at the end of May was 444,000. This corresponds to an offer of 7.7 months at current sales levels.”
In May 2022 (red column), 63,000 new homes were sold (NSA). Last year, 65,000 homes were sold in May.
The record high for May was 120,000 in 2005, and the lowest for May was 26,000 in 2010.
This exceeded all expectations, and the volume of sales for the previous three months was revised upwards. I will have more later today.