GDP together with current gross domestic product (average of GDP and GNI):
Figure 1: GDP (black), gross domestic product (brown), IHS-Markit tracking (red triangle), GDPNow (green square), Goldman Sachs (pink triangle), professional forecasters survey median (turquoise), all in billions of dollars. Ch.2012 $, SAAR. Source: BEA, Philadelphia Fed (May), IHS-Markit (June 24), Atlanta Fed (June 27), Goldman Sachs (June 27) and author’s calculations.
Both IHS-Markit and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta are below (0.9%, 0.3% SAAR) the Professional Forecasters Survey’s Q2 mark, based on survey responses as of the end of April. On the other hand, GDPNow in its latest estimate points to positive growth, not zero. Goldman Sachs is at 3.9% and St. Economic news from the Louis Fed, based on a short-term forecast (dated June 24), points to an increase of 3.7% (the latter is not shown).
Please note that GDO has not changed in the first quarter of 2022 (see below). Furman (2016) for discussion).
GDPNow and tracking forecasts are based on more frequent data prior to the respective quarter’s pre-release. The fact that they are in the positive range suggests that the first GDP print for the second quarter will not be negative. However, as with all such macro data, there will be subsequent revisions that will likely change the contours of the time series, which explains why NBER BCDC typically waits a long time before identifying a bottom (or peak, for that matter). ).