Inflation May 2022 | Ecobrowser

Monthly numbers are down, especially the main PCE:

Figure 1: CPI inflation by month (blue), PCE inflation (black). Peak-to-trough dates as determined by the NBER are in grey. Source: BLS and BEA, author’s calculations.

Figure 2: Monthly CPI core inflation (blue), PCE core inflation (black). Peak-to-trough dates as determined by the NBER are in grey. Source: BLS and BEA, author’s calculations.

Partly as a result, the five-year inflation break-even continues to decline.

Figure 3: Five-year inflationary break-even, 5-year Treasury break-even minus 5-year TIPS (blue, left scale), 5-year break-even adjusted for inflation risk and liquidity premiums, per DKW (red, left scale), both in %. Source: Treasury via FRED. kW per DKWand the author’s calculations.