Schedule for the week from July 3, 2022

on Estimated risk per 07/02/2022 08:11:00

The key report scheduled for this week is the June employment report, which will be released on Friday.

Other key reports include job openings, the June ISM Service survey, and May trade deficit data.

—– Monday, July 4 —–

All US markets will be closed in compliance Independence Day

—– Tuesday, July 5 —–

8:00 AM: Corelogic House Price Index for May.

—– Wednesday, July 6 —–

7:00 am ET: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to release results mortgage bid index.

Survey of vacancies and staff turnover 10:00 AM ET: Survey of vacancies and staff turnover for May from BLS.

This graph shows vacancies (yellow line), hiring (purple), layoffs, layoffs and other (red column) and layoffs (light blue column) from JOLTS.

The number of vacancies decreased in April to 11,400 million from 11,855 million in March.

The number of vacancies (highlighted in yellow) increased by 23% compared to last year, and the number of layoffs increased by 10% compared to last year.

10:00: ISM Service Index for June. The consensus suggests a value of 54.5 compared to 55.9.

14:00: FOMC protocolsMeeting June 14-15, 2022

—– Thursday, July 7 —–

8:15 am: ADP Busy Report for June will NOT to be released.

“The ADP Research Institute (ADPRI) and the Stanford Digital Economics Laboratory (the “Lab”) announced that they will be retooling ADP’s National Employment Report (NER) methodology to provide a more robust, high-frequency view of the labor market and economic growth trajectory. In preparation for the transition to the new report and methodology, ADPRI will pause the release of the current report and target August 31, 2022…”

8:30 am: initial weekly jobless claims the report will be published. The consensus is 225K compared to 231K last week.

US trade deficit8:30 AM: Trade balance report for May from the Census Bureau.

This chart shows the US trade deficit with and without oil as of the latest report. The blue line is the total deficit, the black line is the oil deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit excluding oil products.

By all accounts, the trade deficit should be $84.9 billion. The US trade deficit in the previous month was $87.1 billion.

—– Friday, July 8 —–

Employment decline, the table of the most terrible vacancies8:30 AM: Employment report for June. The consensus is that 270,000 jobs will be added and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.6%.

In May, 390,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate was 3.6%.

This graph shows the percentage of job losses since the start of the employment recession.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since World War II in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 26 months after it began, has recovered faster than the previous two recessions.