With today’s release of the employment situation, we have a live Sam’s rule indicator through June:
Source: FREDas of 07/08/2022.
Here are some of the key metrics followed by BCDC NBER:
Figure 1: Non-farm employment (dark blue), Bloomberg NFP consensus as of 07/06 (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in 2012, USD (green), sales in manufacturing and trade in 2012 dollars (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue) and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all logs normalized to 2020M02 = 0. NBER recession dates from peak to minimum are shaded in grey. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (née Macroeconomic Advisors) (issue 07/01/2022), NBER and author’s calculations.