So, do you think we could be in a recession from mid-June?

With today’s release of the employment situation, we have a live Sam’s rule indicator through June:

Source: FREDas of 07/08/2022.

This indicator does not say that we were in a recession as of mid-June (at the time of the survey), on the contrary, assumptions (for example). See other high-frequency indicators for June. mail.

Here are some of the key metrics followed by BCDC NBER:

Figure 1: Non-farm employment (dark blue), Bloomberg NFP consensus as of 07/06 (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in 2012, USD (green), sales in manufacturing and trade in 2012 dollars (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue) and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all logs normalized to 2020M02 = 0. NBER recession dates from peak to minimum are shaded in grey. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nĂ©e Macroeconomic Advisors) (issue 07/01/2022), NBER and author’s calculations.