Roundup July 8 | Ecobrowser

GS vs. Atlanta and IHS-Markit:

Figure 1: GDP (black), May Consensus of Professional Forecasters (red), Goldman Sachs (pink square), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow (green triangle), and IHS-Markit (blue triangle), in billions of US$ 2012, SAAR. Forecasts for 07/08/2022. Source: BEA and Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and IHS-Markit, and author’s calculations.

Note that even if the pre-release for growth in the second quarter is negative, the average absolute change from pre-harvest to final harvest is about 1.26 percentage points (see chart). BEA (2021)). With GDPNow at -1.2% and IHS-Markit at -1.8% (both SAARs), the final growth rate could be positive. (This is also true for Q1 as the MAR is 1.23 percentage points from third to last). See also this discussion revision of GDP for the period around the 2001 recession.