on Estimated risk per 07/10/2022 08:11:00
According to the latest STR data for July 2, U.S. hotel numbers are down from the previous week, while indexed comparisons from 2019 have improved in favor of the shift in the holiday calendar.
June 26 to July 2, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):
• Occupancy: 67.3% (+2.9%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): $153.32 (+19.7%)
• Revenue Per Available Number (RevPAR): $103.24 (+23.1%)
Given historical trends, the weekly decline in demand was normal given the holiday. Since 2000, the Fourth of July, or holiday celebration (federal holiday), has fallen on a Monday seven times, including last year and 2016. In each case, occupancy dropped more than four percentage points in the week leading up to the holiday. however, most of the losses begin on Wednesday and continue until the weekend. Employment and demand are likely to fall again this week and then strengthen in the remaining weeks of July.
*Due to the impact of the pandemic, STR measures recovery from comparable time periods since 2019.
The following graph shows the seasonal dynamics of hotel occupancy using an average of four weeks.
The red line is 2022, the black line is 2020, the blue line is the median, the light blue dotted line is 2021. The purple dotted line is 2019 (STR compares to a successful year for hotels).
Note. The y-axis does not start at zero to better show seasonal changes.
The 4 week average occupancy will increase seasonally over the next few months.