Very British Elections Begin

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Hello and welcome to the work week,

This year’s big election in the UK is the most important election this week, but it’s only open to a few hundred MPs from Westminster. This is a vote to renew the Conservative Party’s parliamentary governing body, the 1922 committee.

The first task of the new group of 18 Conservative MPs after Monday’s plebiscite will be to agree on rules for electing their party’s new leader (ie the British prime minister). it scheduled to be completed by September. A bunch of deputies already threw their hat into the ringbut according to the FT’s parliamentary team, they could be reduced to two within a few days.

The timing of a decision on a new prime minister is important and serious, given that the UK inflation is the highest in the G7, and the country’s growth next year (if it grows at all) is projected to be the slowest. according to the IMF. There is an urgent need for someone competent get the country through an interim period before the general public once again decides on their government through a general election.

In addition, the British summer of discontent continues. In any case, she is gaining momentum. The criminal defense lawyers will leave again on Monday for reasons explained in this piece is from a legal insider. Further train problems are expected by Aslef, representing train operators, and TSSA, representing more than 6,000 Network Rail employees. strike vote. And on Friday, the strike vote closes to members of the Union of Universities and Colleges in a separate dispute over low wages, unmanageable workloads and professional respect. This may lead to further violation for students of British universities and colleges after the end of this long hot summer of unrest.

Thanks again for your comments on this newsletter. Please contact me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or click reply to this email.

Economic Data

It’s a busy week for major economic data announcements, including inflation numbers from the US, UK, France and Germany that may indicate whether cost of living is nearing a peak, and GDP data from China and the UK.

The Federal Reserve publishes its latest “Beige Book” on the current state of the US economy, and the rate-setting committees of the central banks of New Zealand and South Korea may raise their respective rates by 50 basis points. In addition, Croatia is accepted as the last member of the Eurozone group.

Companies

US banks will open the US reporting season this week, forecasting incredible results thanks to a series of Fed rate hikes. Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America as well as Citygroup see growth in net interest income, the difference between what banks pay depositors and what they earn from loans and other assets.

A line chart of three years of compound annual growth in net interest income, showing that major US banks are about to reap the benefits of rate hikes

It’s a big fear recession. Bank stocks tend to suffer the most during recessions. When problems appear on the horizon, there is a need to increase capital reserves in case existing loans become bad.

Key economic and corporate reports

Here’s a more comprehensive list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

Tuesday

  • Germany, ZEW economic sentiment survey

  • India, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June and industrial production figures for May

  • Japan, Producer Price Index data for June

  • OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

  • UK retail sales report, British Retail Consortium and KPMG for June

  • Results: Grafton Group H1 trade update, PepsiCo Q2

Wednesday

  • Canada, Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Committee Meets to Set Rates

  • China, trade data for June

  • EU industrial production data for May

  • France final CPI data for June

  • Germany final CPI data for June

  • New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Committee Meeting

  • South Korea kick-off meeting

  • UK, June GDP data plus May trade and service output data

  • US, CPI data for June plus the Federal Reserve releases its latest Beige Book on current economic conditions

  • Results: JD Weatherspoon FG, Page group Trading update Q2

Thursday

  • The EU and the European Commission publish their summer economic forecasts

  • Japan, industrial production data for May

  • United Kingdom, Royal Institution of Certified Surveyors Monthly Residential Market Survey

  • US, PPI data for June

  • Results: Barrat Developments trade update, Ericsson Q2, Experian Trading update Q1, Ferrovial H1, JPMorgan Chase Q2, Morgan Stanley Q2, Rio Tinto Overview of Q2 operations, tall oil trade update

Friday

  • Canada, wholesale trade data for May

  • China, Q2 GDP data and June retail sales and industrial production data

  • EU merchandise trade data for May

  • India, trade statistics

  • Italy, CPI data for June

  • Poland, CPI data for June

  • UK, June corporate and individual insolvency data

  • US food services and retail sales data for June

  • Results: Bank of New York Mellon Q2, BlackRock Q2, Burberry Trading update Q1, Citygroup Q2, Svenska Handelsbanken H1, Wells Fargo Q2

World events

Finally, here’s a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

  • EU and eurozone finance ministers to meet in Brussels

  • United Kingdom, continuation of strike by criminal lawyers in England and Wales during reduction in legal aid. In addition, TSSA votes for more than 6,000 Network Rail employees in a dispute over wages, conditions and job security.

  • UK, 1922 Conservative Party committee election, who will then stamp the terms of the leadership election to determine the nation’s next prime minister.

Tuesday

  • EU, ministers from 27 member states must pass the last three legal acts needed for Croatia to become the 20th member to adopt the euro

  • United Kingdom, Transport for London is finalizing a consultation on changing intra-city bus service to meet the government’s demand for significant cost savings.

  • United Kingdom, 12 July is a public holiday in Northern Ireland commemorating the victory of the Protestant King William of Orange over the Catholic King James II at the Battle of the Boyne in 1690.

  • USA, New York observes the phenomenon of “Manhattanhenge”, where the sun sets exactly in line with the streets, numbered from east to west.

Wednesday

  • France, the public holiday of Bastille Day, dedicated to the events of the beginning of the French Revolution of 1789.

  • Montenegro, National Day Public Holiday, dedicated to the date of the official recognition of the country’s borders at the Berlin Congress.

  • US President Joe Biden begins a tour of the Middle East, visiting Israel, the Palestinian territories and Saudi Arabia.

Thursday

  • Germany, delegates at the German Social Democrats conference in Hannover will discuss whether former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder should be expelled from the party for his close ties to Russia.

  • Iraq, National Republic Day, commemorating the overthrow of the Hashemite monarchy in 1958.

  • UK, the NHS publishes May waiting times for patients with suspected and diagnosed cancer and the Home Office publishes EU settlement scheme statistics for June. In addition, the British Open, the world’s oldest golf tournament, kicks off in St. Andrews.

Friday

  • UK, BBC Proms music concerts begin at the Royal Albert Hall in London. In addition, the Royal International Air Tattoo, the largest air show in Europe, begins at RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire. Also, St. Swithin’s Day, when folklore says that if it rains, it will rain for 40 more days.

  • The United States, Donald Trump, and two of his adult children have agreed to testify in a New York State civil investigation that begins today into the former president’s business practices. Also in Oregon starts the World Championships in Athletics, which is the first time held in the United States.

Saturday

  • In the UK, workers at the Budweiser Brewing Group plant in Lancashire, where Budweiser, Stella Artois, Becks, Boddingtons and Export Pale Ale are brewed, are starting a 36-hour wage strike.

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