Key week for inflation and mortgage rates

on Estimated risk per 11.07.2022 21:31:00

Mortgage rates From Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily: Important inflation data at stake this week

Ultimately, the week will depend on the results of several inflation reports. The first of these, Wednesday’s CPI, is also the most important. Producer prices follow on Thursday, and the inflation expectations component of the consumer sentiment data hit Friday morning. If the CPI has not yet given a strong enough signal by midweek, this trio of reports should help the market pick a winner between 50 and 75 basis points for the next Fed rate hike. He should also make a strong commentary on how high or low the ceiling for bond trading ranges should be. [30 year fixed 5.77%]
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• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.

For COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID metrics
Currently A week
Percentage fully vaccinated 67.0% ≥70.0%one
Fully vaccinated (millions) 222.5 ≥232one
new cases per day3 103 907 112 666 ≤50002
hospitalized3🚩 28 320 28 238 ≤30002
Deaths per day3 281 352 ≤502
one The minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated at 70% to 85%).
2my goals are to stop daily fasting,
37-day mean for cases currently hospitalized and deaths
🚩 Increase in the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths per week in an average of 7 days.

✅ Goal achieved.

COVID-19 Positive tests per dayClick on the graph to enlarge the image.

This graph shows the daily (bars) and 7-day average (line) of reported deaths.

The average daily death rate bottomed out in July 2021 at 214 people per day.