on Estimated risk per 11.07.2022 21:31:00
From Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily: Important inflation data at stake this week
Ultimately, the week will depend on the results of several inflation reports. The first of these, Wednesday’s CPI, is also the most important. Producer prices follow on Thursday, and the inflation expectations component of the consumer sentiment data hit Friday morning. If the CPI has not yet given a strong enough signal by midweek, this trio of reports should help the market pick a winner between 50 and 75 basis points for the next Fed rate hike. He should also make a strong commentary on how high or low the ceiling for bond trading ranges should be. [30 year fixed 5.77%]
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Tuesday:
• At 6:00 AM ET, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June.
For COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):
| COVID metrics | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Currently | A week Back |
Target | ||
| Percentage fully vaccinated | 67.0% | — | ≥70.0%one | |
| Fully vaccinated (millions) | 222.5 | — | ≥232one | |
| new cases per day3 | 103 907 | 112 666 | ≤50002 | |
| hospitalized3🚩 | 28 320 | 28 238 | ≤30002 | |
| Deaths per day3 | 281 | 352 | ≤502 | |
| one The minimum to achieve “herd immunity” (estimated at 70% to 85%). 2my goals are to stop daily fasting, 37-day mean for cases currently hospitalized and deaths 🚩 Increase in the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths per week in an average of 7 days. ✅ Goal achieved. |
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Click on the graph to enlarge the image.
This graph shows the daily (bars) and 7-day average (line) of reported deaths.
The average daily death rate bottomed out in July 2021 at 214 people per day.
