The intensity of the guerrilla war waged by Islamic State-linked rebels in gas-rich Cabo Delgado has begun to adversely affect South African businesses in Mozambique, and the move south has raised fears of regional instability in the South African region. Development Community (SADC), security experts and military warn. The escalation of the conflict was exacerbated by new military tactics used by extremists who regrouped to carry out effective attacks on a smaller scale, according to Willem Els, senior fellow at the Institute for Security Studies, and Jasmine Opperman, an analyst at the Armed Conflict Location and Events Data Project. cells. ALSO READ: …
The intensity of guerrilla warfare was waged by Islamic State-linked rebels in gas-rich Cabo Delgado began to have a negative impact on South African businesses in Mozambique as the move south raises fears of regional instability in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), security experts and the military warn.
The escalation of the conflict was exacerbated by new military tactics used by extremists who regrouped to carry out effective attacks on a smaller scale, according to Willem Els, senior fellow at the Institute for Security Studies, and Jasmine Opperman, an analyst at the Armed Conflict Location and Events Data Project. cells.
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According to them, this made it difficult for the SADC mission in Mozambique (Himself) forces to completely suppress the swift attacks in the vast forests of the predominantly rural Cabo Delgado.
Several incidents reported in Cabo Delgado over the past three weeks included:
- An attack on a Christian village in the Ankuabe region where two people were beheaded, a church burned down and dozens of houses destroyed.
- Discovery of three decapitated bodies of farmers in the fields of Xinawane.
- Burning of over 1,500 houses and three classrooms in Ankuab.
- Destruction of transformers, leaving 30,000 people without power.
“This conflict is on our doorstep and will definitely affect us,” Els said.
“South African businesses have already been hit, especially in the mining sector. There are huge mines with the largest deposits in the world that supply companies like Tesla.
“There are already rumors that one mine has closed, which means that this will affect not only South Africa, but also the US economy.
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“Rwandan soldiers have so far managed to stabilize the situation in two gas-rich areas with the support of large forces.
“In the 17 districts of the province of Cabo Delgado, the Rwandans are doing well, but they are not ready to cover everything.
“The militants are not fools – they regrouped, assessing the situation. Now they have changed their tactics, moving from large groups to smaller groups… which makes it difficult for them to be easily detected by peacekeeping forces.
“After the SADC forces reacted, they moved to strike another area.”
Opperman said the move south in Cabo Delgado “was neither surprising nor shocking”.
The rebels found themselves “in a classic guerrilla setting, divided into smaller groups.”
She said: “Government forces from Samim, Rwanda and Mozambique are expanding the war zone.
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“The rebels find themselves in unfamiliar territory, which raises questions about the sustainability of the campaign to push south. But they still inspire fear with their attacks.
“These attacks are still limited to small cells and target isolated communities with the help of the effective Islamic State propaganda machine.
“Whether they succeed in their campaign south or not, they should not be taken for granted.” He himself faced the “opportunity problem”.
“They seem to be preparing for a counter-insurgency that will be more ideal. But without foot warriors capable of fighting, who must be equipped, difficulties will arise.
