Annual CPI inflation expectations for mid-July

New York Fed consumer expectations rose in June, while Michigan’s expectations declined in July. According to the July WSJ survey, annualized inflation will be 3.9% in June 2023.

Figure 1: Year-on-year CPI inflation (black), median expected from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected (provisional) from the Michigan Consumer Survey (red), median from the New York Fed Consumer Expectations Survey (light -green), forecast from the Cleveland Fed (pink), average from the Coibion-Gorodnichenko survey of company expectations [light blue squares]. Observation for July in Michigan is preliminary. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, New York Fed, Cleveland FRB as well as Koibion ​​and Gorodnichenko.

While New York Fed annual inflation expectations rose from 6.6% to 6.8% in July, median three-year expectations fell from 4.76% to 4.60% (and fell from 4.88% in March) .