New York Fed consumer expectations rose in June, while Michigan’s expectations declined in July. According to the July WSJ survey, annualized inflation will be 3.9% in June 2023.
Figure 1: Year-on-year CPI inflation (black), median expected from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (blue +), median expected (provisional) from the Michigan Consumer Survey (red), median from the New York Fed Consumer Expectations Survey (light -green), forecast from the Cleveland Fed (pink), average from the Coibion-Gorodnichenko survey of company expectations [light blue squares]. Observation for July in Michigan is preliminary. Source: BLS, University of Michigan via FRED and Investing.com, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed Survey of Professional Forecasters, New York Fed, Cleveland FRB as well as Koibion and Gorodnichenko.
While New York Fed annual inflation expectations rose from 6.6% to 6.8% in July, median three-year expectations fell from 4.76% to 4.60% (and fell from 4.88% in March) .