Falling term spreads | Ecobrowser

And minus on 2s10s:

Figure 1: Treasury spreads for 10–3 months (blue), 10–2 years (brown), and 10–5 years (green), all in %. Peak-to-trough dates as determined by the NBER are in grey. Source: Treasury via FRED, author’s calculations.

The fall in the spread from 10 years to 3 months is quite sharp. For me, this is the best (only) predictor of a 12-month recession.

The fact that 2s10s and 5s10s are negative highlights the fact that the inversion is in the middle of the spectrum.

Figure 2: Treasury yield curves for the indicated dates in %. Source: Treasury via FRED.

A month ago, the yield curve was generally up, although 10s5s was negative. As of today, we have an inversion between 3 years and 20 years (not shown).