Inflation in June | Ecobrowser

A little old news, but it seems useful to see what the various indicators are showing on an annualized basis from month to month. Tied, trimmed and sticky price inflation below the headline:

Figure 1: Monthly CPI inflation (blue), chained CPI (brown), 16% adjusted CPI inflation (red), fixed price CPI inflation (green), personal consumption deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (i.e. , 0.05 means 5%). Seasonally adjusted linked consumer price index using X13 geometric census (brown). Recession dates as determined by the NBER (peak to trough) are shaded in grey. Source: BLS, BEA, NBER and author’s calculations.

Trimmed inflation has risen but is much lower than overall, suggesting that, despite a broad base, some high components are on the rise overall. Low stable price inflation means that most of the fluctuations are due to flexible price movements, so a downward movement in the headline can be markedly reflected in the whole.

Core fixed-price inflation is lower than general inflation, although not by much. This is because electricity costs are one of the big flexible price brackets.

Figure 2: Core CPI monthly inflation (blue), pegged core CPI (brown), fixed price core CPI inflation (green), core personal consumption expenditure deflator inflation (black), all in decimal form (i.e. 0.05 means 5% ). Seasonally adjusted linked consumer price index using X13 geometric census (brown). Recession dates as determined by the NBER (peak to trough) are shaded in grey. Source: BLS, BEA, NBER and author’s calculations.

Looking ahead, you can see that the price of gasoline fell along with the price of oil.

Source: FRED.

By the week ended July 11, the price of gasoline had fallen to 4,646, down 7.2% from the week ended June 13. Literally, taking into account the weight of gasoline at 3.75%, this means a decrease in monthly inflation in July by a quarter of a percentage point, or more than 3 percentage points. on an annualized basis, not taking into account other ways in which gasoline prices affect overall prices.