Slowdown in showings suggests a further decline in existing home sales in the coming months

on Estimated risk per 07/19/2022 14:56:00

Today in the Calculated Risk Real Estate newsletter: Slowdown in showings suggests a further decline in existing home sales in the coming months

An excerpt from the letter:

The following data is provided by David Arbit, Director of Research for Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and NorthstarMLS (published with permission). Here link to their details.

This graph shows the 7-day averages of Twin Cities for 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022. The 7-day averages (red) are currently 23% lower than they were in 2019..

Lawler PMMS glassesClick on the graph to enlarge the image.

This slowdown began in May and accelerated in June. Existing home sales figures for June will be released tomorrow, and this includes closings in June. The closure in June was mainly due to contracts signed in April and May. This slowdown in impressions suggests a further decline in closed sales over the next few months..

2020 (black) saw a huge drop in numbers at the beginning of the pandemic, and then for the rest of the year, numbers were well above 2019 levels (blue). And 2021 (gold) numbers were very strong in H1 and then closer to 2019 in H2.

Note that there have been downturns in viewing during the holidays (July 4th, Memorial Day, Thanksgiving and Christmas), as well as downturns due to protests and curfews associated with the deaths of George Floyd and Donte Wright.

2022 (red) started well, but is now significantly lower than the previous three years.

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