So, you think we’re in a recession right now? (Part VI)

Weekly data and Google/big data until July 16 for the US economy (continued) Part I, Part II, Part 3, Part IV, Part Vand also “So you think we could have a recession from mid-June” Part I as well as Part II).

Source: New York Fed via WORLD.

Source: OECD.

WEI discussion by Lewis-Mertens-Stoke gentlemen and OECD Weekly Tracker gentlemen.

And here is Baumeister et al. Weekly Index of Economic Conditions through June 25th.

Source: Baumeister and others WECI.

And here is a snapshot of some of the key business cycle indicators that the BCDC NBER is looking at:

Figure 1: Non-agricultural employment (dark blue), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in 2012 (green), manufacturing and trade sales in 2012 (black), consumption in 2012 (blue ) , and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all logs normalized to 2021M06=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (née Macroeconomic Advisors) (issue 07/01/2022), NBER and author’s calculations.