Record temperature of 40 degrees in the UK could be the norm within 30 years

It may have been the hottest day on record in the UK this week, but researchers warn such 40°C temperatures won’t be out of the ordinary for the next three decades.

A new study suggests that extreme heatwaves will increase by more than 30 percent in the coming years after they are caused by burning fossil fuels and other human activities.

Tuesday was the hottest day ever recorded in the UK. Mercury above 40.3C (104F).

But it serves as an early preview of what forecasters think will be typical summer weather by 2050.

The new study, which analyzed atmospheric circulation patterns and greenhouse gases, looked at data from just over a year ago, when nearly 1,500 people died as average temperatures more than doubled in the US and Canada.

Warning: A new study suggests that extreme heatwaves will increase by more than 30 percent over the next three decades. The shading in the image above represents surface air temperature anomalies, and the green vector represents the jet stream. The two blue vectors show that the heatwave that hit the US last year was related to anomalous circulation in the North Pacific and the Arctic.


As extreme heat ravages the US, Europe and Africa, killing thousands, scientists warn the worst is yet to come.

As countries continue to release greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, experts warn that the sweltering temperatures this summer could seem mild in 30 years.

Air conditioning, a technology that many in the world’s richest countries take for granted, is a lifesaver during a heat wave.

However, only about 8 percent of the 2.8 billion people living in the hottest – and often poorest – parts of the world currently have it in their homes.

In a recent article, the group Harvard researchers modeled the future demand for air conditioners as the number of days of extreme heat increases around the world.

They found a huge gap between current air conditioning capabilities and what it will take to save lives by 2050, especially in low-income and developing countries.

Researchers have calculated that by 2050, on average, at least 70% of the population in several countries will need air conditioning if emissions continue to rise, and in equatorial countries such as India and Indonesia, this number will be even higher.

Even if the world meets the emission thresholds set by the Paris climate accords, which it has not yet, on average 40 to 50 percent of the population in many of the world’s warmest countries will still need air conditioning. .

Co-author Dr Chunzai Wang of the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology said: “An extraordinary and unprecedented heat wave swept western North America in late June 2021.

“This has resulted in hundreds of deaths and mass mortality of sea creatures off the coast, as well as horrific forest fires.

“In this article, we have studied the physical processes of internal variability, such as atmospheric circulation patterns, and external forcing, such as anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gases.”

Computer modeling has shown that greenhouse gases are the main cause of rising temperatures, which the research team says will continue to rise and lead to more frequent and extreme heatwaves in the future.

Meanwhile, atmospheric circulation models describe how air flows and affects surface temperatures around the planet.

Both can change with natural warming from the sun, internal atmospheric processes, and the rotation of the Earth.

These configurations are responsible for daily weather as well as long-term climate patterns.

Using observational data and climate models, the researchers identified three specific ocean temperature events during the 2021 heat wave.

They are known as the North Pacific, Arctic and Pacific Canada, and North American models.

Dr. Wang said: “The North Pacific model and the Arctic and Pacific Canada model coincided with the development and maturity phases of the heat wave, while the North American model coincided with the decay and eastward movement of the heat wave.”

“This suggests that the heat wave originated from the North Pacific and the Arctic, while the North American model brought the heat wave outward.”

The results could also explain the current UK heatwave, the researchers said.

Previously, however, the three atmospheric circulation patterns overlapped without causing extreme heat.

Dr. Wang added: “We found that it is likely that greenhouse gas-related global warming is affecting these three atmospheric circulation pattern variability, which in turn led to a more extreme heat wave.

Temperatures of over 40°C hit England on Tuesday, the hottest day on record in Britain.

Temperatures of over 40°C hit England on Tuesday, the hottest day on record in Britain.

Firefighters took part in extinguishing a fire in the Dartford Marshes in Kent after temperatures reached 40°C for the first time on record.

Firefighters took part in extinguishing a fire in the Dartford Marshes in Kent after temperatures reached 40°C for the first time on record.

“If appropriate measures are not taken, the likelihood of heat waves will increase and further affect the ecological balance, as well as sustainable social and economic development.”

Landmark 40C (104F) was first reached in the UK at Heathrow Airport. The previous record, 38.7°C in 2019, fell when 39.1°C was recorded in Charlwood, Surrey.

Then 40.2C was recorded at Heathrow at 12:50 before 40.3 (104.5F) was recorded at Coningsby, Lincolnshire.

Tuesday’s sharp rise in temperature came after the hottest night on record. The highest minimum temperature in 24 hours was recorded in Kenley, south London, with 25.8°C in the 24 hours before 10am.

Transport Minister Grant Shapps acknowledged that it would take decades for road and rail infrastructure to become sufficiently resilient.

Meanwhile, wildfires have engulfed Europe and the US, where more than a third of the country is at risk of heat.

Research published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.


The Paris Agreement, first signed in 2015, is an international agreement to control and limit climate change.

He hopes to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2°C (3.6°F) “and continue efforts to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C (2.7°F)”.

It looks like the more ambitious goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) may be more important than ever, according to a previous study that claims 25 percent of the world could face a significant increase in dry conditions.

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change has four main objectives for reducing emissions:

1) Long-term goal to keep global average temperature rise well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

2) Strive to limit the rise to 1.5°C as this will significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

3) Governments agree on the need to peak global emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that it will take longer for developing countries.

4) After that, take quick cuts according to the best available science.

Source: European Commission.