It may have been the hottest day on record in the UK this week, but researchers warn such 40°C temperatures won’t be out of the ordinary for the next three decades.
A new study suggests that extreme heatwaves will increase by more than 30 percent in the coming years after they are caused by burning fossil fuels and other human activities.
Tuesday was the hottest day ever recorded in the UK. Mercury above 40.3C (104F).
But it serves as an early preview of what forecasters think will be typical summer weather by 2050.
The new study, which analyzed atmospheric circulation patterns and greenhouse gases, looked at data from just over a year ago, when nearly 1,500 people died as average temperatures more than doubled in the US and Canada.
Warning: A new study suggests that extreme heatwaves will increase by more than 30 percent over the next three decades. The shading in the image above represents surface air temperature anomalies, and the green vector represents the jet stream. The two blue vectors show that the heatwave that hit the US last year was related to anomalous circulation in the North Pacific and the Arctic.
Co-author Dr Chunzai Wang of the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology said: “An extraordinary and unprecedented heat wave swept western North America in late June 2021.
“This has resulted in hundreds of deaths and mass mortality of sea creatures off the coast, as well as horrific forest fires.
“In this article, we have studied the physical processes of internal variability, such as atmospheric circulation patterns, and external forcing, such as anthropogenic (man-made) greenhouse gases.”
Computer modeling has shown that greenhouse gases are the main cause of rising temperatures, which the research team says will continue to rise and lead to more frequent and extreme heatwaves in the future.
Meanwhile, atmospheric circulation models describe how air flows and affects surface temperatures around the planet.
Both can change with natural warming from the sun, internal atmospheric processes, and the rotation of the Earth.
These configurations are responsible for daily weather as well as long-term climate patterns.
Using observational data and climate models, the researchers identified three specific ocean temperature events during the 2021 heat wave.
They are known as the North Pacific, Arctic and Pacific Canada, and North American models.
Dr. Wang said: “The North Pacific model and the Arctic and Pacific Canada model coincided with the development and maturity phases of the heat wave, while the North American model coincided with the decay and eastward movement of the heat wave.”
“This suggests that the heat wave originated from the North Pacific and the Arctic, while the North American model brought the heat wave outward.”
The results could also explain the current UK heatwave, the researchers said.
Previously, however, the three atmospheric circulation patterns overlapped without causing extreme heat.
Dr. Wang added: “We found that it is likely that greenhouse gas-related global warming is affecting these three atmospheric circulation pattern variability, which in turn led to a more extreme heat wave.
Temperatures of over 40°C hit England on Tuesday, the hottest day on record in Britain.
Firefighters took part in extinguishing a fire in the Dartford Marshes in Kent after temperatures reached 40°C for the first time on record.
“If appropriate measures are not taken, the likelihood of heat waves will increase and further affect the ecological balance, as well as sustainable social and economic development.”
Landmark 40C (104F) was first reached in the UK at Heathrow Airport. The previous record, 38.7°C in 2019, fell when 39.1°C was recorded in Charlwood, Surrey.
Then 40.2C was recorded at Heathrow at 12:50 before 40.3 (104.5F) was recorded at Coningsby, Lincolnshire.
Tuesday’s sharp rise in temperature came after the hottest night on record. The highest minimum temperature in 24 hours was recorded in Kenley, south London, with 25.8°C in the 24 hours before 10am.
Transport Minister Grant Shapps acknowledged that it would take decades for road and rail infrastructure to become sufficiently resilient.
Meanwhile, wildfires have engulfed Europe and the US, where more than a third of the country is at risk of heat.
Research published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.
