GDP is now at -1.6%, st. Louis Fed News +4%, IHS-Markit -2.0% and Goldman Sachs +0.5%. Bloomberg Consensus +0.4% (all QoQ SAAR).
Figure 1: Actual Leading GDP Growth Rate (black), Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta GDPNow (red line), St. Louis Fed News Index (turquoise line), IHS Markit (sky blue triangle), Goldman Sachs (blue +), Bloomberg Consensus (pink open square), all in %, NBER identified recession peak and trough dates shaded in grey. TO HARM. Source: BEA via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, St. Louis. Louis Fed via FRED, IHS-Markit, Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg and NBER.
In this three-year sample (clearly unrepresentative given the effects of the pandemic), GDPNow is skewed upwards, while St. The current weather forecast, based on the Louis Fed news, is understated at 0.8 and 0.9 p.p. respectively. On the other hand, the RMSFE of the first is about 2 pp, the second is 5.9 pp. If you discard data for Q1-Q3 2020, then GDPNow is less prone to decline than St. Louis, while RMSFE is narrower (1.5 vs. 2.5 p.p.).
In doing so, we recall that these nowcasts are intended to evaluate the preliminary release. The July 28 release for Q2 2022 is a preliminary release that estimates many components of GDP. Estimates will be revised, sometimes significantly, in particular in the annual benchmark (this year it takes place in September rather than July) and in the five-year comprehensive reviews (see discussion in this paper). mail). The positive value can then eventually change to negative and vice versa.