in Estimated risk per 23.07.2022 08:11:00
The key report this week is a preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter.
Other key reports include June New Home Sales, June Personal Income and Spending, and Case-Schiller May House Prices.
In terms of production, the July surveys of the Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City Feds will be published.
The FOMC will meet this week and expect to raise rates by 75 basis points.
—– Monday, July 25 —–
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for June. This is a composite index of other data.
10:30: Dallas Fed Operations Review for July.
—– Tuesday, July 26 —–
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May.
This chart shows the annual change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices as of the most recent report (Composite 20 was launched in January 2000).
The consensus is for the Comp 20 index to increase 21.0% year-on-year for May.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for May. Initially, these were only GSE resales, however, there is also an expanded index.
This graph shows new home sales since 1963. The dotted line is the sales level for the last month.
The consensus is 666k SAARs, up from 696k in May.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Operations Overview for July.
—– Wednesday, July 27 —–
7:00 am ET: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to release results mortgage bid index.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is to reduce durable goods orders by 0.5%.
10:00 AM: Index of pending home sales for June. The consensus calls for a 3.7% decline in the index.
14:00: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points, increasing the target range for the federal funds rate from 2-1/4 percent to 2-1/2 percent.
14:30: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.
—– Thursday, July 28 —–
8:30 am: initial weekly jobless claims the report will be published. The consensus is 248K compared to 251K last week.
8:30 AM: Gross domestic product, 2nd quarter (provisional) and annual update. By all accounts, real GDP increased 0.4% year-on-year in the second quarter, compared to -1.6% in the first quarter.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey for July. This is the last of the regional surveys for July.
—– Friday, July 29 —–
8:30 AM ET: Personal income and expenses, June 2022. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in personal income and a 0.9% increase in personal spending. And for Core PCE, the price index will increase by 0.5%. PCE prices are expected to rise 6.6% year on year, while PCE benchmark prices are expected to rise 4.7% year on year.
quarter to ten: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (final for July). Consensus for reading 51.1.