More rain, cool days and hot nights: Australia’s climate from August to October

Drive through La Niña, the city has another climate factor, and for the first time in a long time, it has a greater impact on our weather.

However, unfortunately, the effect will be about the same. The Indian Ocean Dipole may be the main regulator of our climate in Australia, but it still means rain and lots of rain.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) climate forecast for the next three months the sun-scorched country will remain damp.

“August to October is likely to see more than average rainfall across most of Australia,” said BOM Senior Meteorologist Dr. Lynette Bettio.

The past three months have been unusually wet for the east, with Cairns having its wettest July and flooding from Hunter to Illawarra in New South Wales.

Although, on the contrary, it was also dry in most of South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania.

Eastern and inland Australia were also colder than average, with Alice Springs recording a record 15 nights in a row where the mercury dropped below zero.

But Western Australia, South Australia, parts of Victoria and western Tasmania have been hot over the past few months.

50% chance La Niña could return

Looking ahead, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate factor in the Pacific, which has been in La Niña for some time, is now taking a little breather. But it will most likely return.

“We remain on La Niña watch, which means that La Niña has about a 50% chance of returning this spring,” Dr. Bettio said.

La Ninas can dump huge amounts of rainfall, especially in eastern Australia. Thus, when ENSO is in the neutral position, its ability to produce moisture is reduced. Although not quite. We are still close to La Niña, so chances are it will rain more than usual.

Indian Ocean dipole in the driver’s seat

But the real weather magic happens on the other side of the country, off the coast of Western Australia.

“In our west, warmer ocean temperatures off Indonesia and cooler conditions off Africa point to the possibility of a negative Indian Ocean dipole,” Dr. Bettio said.

The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is a key climate factor that can affect Australia’s weather.

When it is in its negative phase, westerly equatorial winds allow warmer waters to drain off the coast of Australia.

Warmer waters result in more precipitation, and these rains can spread from the northwest of Western Australia to the east of the country.

“There is a high chance of above-normal rainfall across much of Australia, especially in the central and eastern states,” said Dr. Bettio.

Considering how much precipitation has already fallen in recent months, this means that the dams are already filled, the rivers and the soils are waterlogged. All perfect conditions for re-flooding if heavy rain comes again.

“But it will likely be drier than usual in parts of southwestern Western Australia and western Tasmania,” she said.

Cool days, warm nights

As for the temperature, it looks like it will be relatively average during the daytime in the central parts of the country. Indeed, southern Queensland and most of New South Wales can be cooler than usual.

But expect hotter days in the coming months as far north as coastal Washington state, communities in South Africa, Victoria and Tasmania.

At night, no matter where you are, it will probably be hotter than usual. An uncomfortably warm and humid night could be the hallmark of the coming months.

Originally published as More rain, cool days and hot nights: Australia’s climate from August to October