Current Forecasts and Forecasts of GDP Growth in Q2 2022

They refer to the preliminary issue numbers coming out tomorrow, with a reminder that they will be revised twice before the end of September as new data become available. Slight change of mind after 5 days ago.

Figure 1: Actual provisional GDP growth rate (black), GDPFed Atlanta GDPNow for July 27 (red line), St. Louis Fed Index July 22 (turquoise line), IHS Markit July 27 (sky blue triangle), Goldman Sachs July 27 (blue +), Bloomberg Consensus July 27 (pink open square), all in %, NBER identified peak-to-trough dates shaded in grey. TO HARM. Source: BEA via ALFRED, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, St. Louis. Louis Fed via FRED, IHS-Markit, Goldman Sachs, Bloomberg and NBER.

FROM last post On July 22, GDPNow rose from -1.6% on July 19 to -1.2% on July 27. IHS Markit rose from -2% to -1.2%. Goldman Sachs rose from +0.5% to +1%. Bloomberg consensus this morning is +0.5% (all Q/Q SAAR growth rates).

Bloomberg correctly states, based on the Bloomberg consensus, ‘US economy struggles to prevent one-time cuts’ (not a “recession” as the NBER can still spot the start of a recession, depending on what other indicators show).