Schedule for the week from July 31, 2022

in Estimated risk per 07/30/2022 08:11:00

The key report this week is the July employment report.

Other key reports include the ISM Manufacturing and Services Index, July Auto Sales and the June Trade Deficit.

—– Monday, August 1 —–

8:00 am ET: Corelogic House Price Index for June

10:00 AM: ISM manufacturing index for July. The general consensus is that ISM should be at 52.0 compared to 53.0 in June.

10:00 AM: Construction costs for June. The consensus is to increase construction spending by 0.2%.

14:00: Survey of the opinion of a senior loan officer on the practice of bank lending for July.

—– Tuesday, August 2 —–

Survey of vacancies and staff turnover10:00 AM ET: Survey of vacancies and staff turnover for June from BLS.

This graph shows vacancies (yellow line), hiring (purple), layoffs, layoffs and other (red column) and layoffs (light blue column) from JOLTS.

The number of vacancies decreased in May to 11.254 million from 11.681 million in April.

The number of vacancies (highlighted in yellow) increased by 17% compared to last year, and the number of layoffs increased by 11% compared to last year.

10:00: 2 sq. 2022 Available housing and homeownership from the Census Bureau.

11:00 am: New York Fed: Quarterly report on debts and loans of households for the 2nd quarter.

Cars saleAll day: Sale of cars for July from BEA. The general consensus is that passenger car sales should be SAAR13.5 million in July, compared to June’s 13.0 million (seasonally adjusted annual rate).

This graph shows passenger car sales since BEA began collecting data in 1967. The dotted line is the sales level for the last month.

—– Wednesday, August 3 —–

7:00 am ET: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) to release results mortgage bid index.

10:00: ISM Service Index for July. The consensus suggests a value of 53.5 compared to 55.3.

—– Thursday, August 4 —–

US trade deficit 8:30 AM: Trade balance report for June from the Census Bureau.

This chart shows the US trade deficit with and without oil as of the latest report. The blue line is the total deficit, the black line is the oil deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit excluding oil products.

By all accounts, the trade deficit will be $80.1 billion. The US trade deficit in the previous month was $85.5 billion.

8:30 am: initial weekly jobless claims the report will be published. The consensus is 265K compared to 256K last week.

—– Friday, August 5 —–

Employment decline, the table of the most terrible vacancies8:30 AM: Employment report for July. The consensus is that 250,000 jobs will be added and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 3.6%.

In June, 372,000 jobs were added and the unemployment rate was 3.6%.

This graph shows the percentage of job losses since the start of the employment recession.

The current employment recession was by far the worst recession since World War II in percentage terms. However, the current employment recession, 28 months after it began, has recovered faster than the previous two recessions.