Geographic distribution of economic activity until June 2022

From Philadelphia Fedcoincident growth rate index for the 3 months to June 2022:

Source: Philadelphia FedJuly 27, 2022

Negative growth was recorded only for Alaska and Montana. Using Baumeister et al. Weekly indicator of economic conditions, growth is negative (through June 25) for Alaska and Utah only.

The Philadelphia Fed’s coinciding index is at odds with both the official BEA measure and the IHS Markit GDP measure:

Figure 1: Monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), coinciding index (turquoise), official GDP in Ch.2012$ (blue bar), all logs normalized to 2021M11=0. Source: IHS Markit (excluding macro advisors) (issue 07/01/2022), Philadelphia FedBEA and author’s calculations.

In some respects, this is not too surprising. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank indices are based on four measures: nonfarm payrolls, average hours worked by production workers in manufacturing, unemployment rates, and wage payments deflated by the CPI (U.S. city average). labor market, which, as we know from the establishment survey, still intensifying until June.

For comparison, here is a map for 2007M12, the peak of the NBER before the Great Recession:

Source: Philadelphia Fed.

At least 13 states, including Michigan, recorded declines at the start of the Great Recession (but 9 months before Lehman).