Market Talk – August 2, 2022

ASIA:

Manufacturing activity in India grew at its fastest pace in eight months in July, helped by robust growth in new orders and production as demand continued to improve amid easing price pressures, a private survey showed. The survey results show that the Indian economy remains resilient, at least for now, despite fears of faster interest rate hikes, massive capital outflows, a weaker rupee and a rapidly slowing global economy. The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (INPMI=ECI) jumped to 56.4 in July from 53.9 in June, staying above the 50 level, the thirteenth month separating growth from contraction. The RBI, which has already raised its key interest rate by a total of 90 basis points since the beginning of May, is expected to raise it again this week.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its economic growth forecast for Singapore, in line with a recent warning that it will cut its global economic estimates later this month. The IMF said Singapore’s economy will grow 3.7 percent this year, according to a country report released Friday (July 22) after consultations with local authorities. The IMF said growth this year will be lower than in 2021, when it increased by 7.6 percent, as trade-related sectors could slow due to supply constraints, and recovery in the worst-hit sectors, tourism and aviation, consumer goods and construction will slow down. it has just begun. However, the IMF maintains its headline inflation forecast for Singapore at 4.8 percent, including all goods and services.

Today was a mixed day for major Asian stock markets:

  • The NIKKEI 225 was down 398.62 points, or -1.42%, at 27,594.73.
  • Shanghai fell 73.69 points or -2.26% to 3186.27.
  • Hang Seng was down 476.63 points or -2.36% to 19,689.21.
  • The ASX 200 rose 5.10 points, or 0.07%, to 6,998.10.
  • Kospi fell 12.63 points or -0.52% to 2439.62.
  • SENSEX increased by 20.86 points or 0.04% to 58,136.36.
  • Nifty50 increased by 5.40 points or 0.03% to 17,345.45.

Today was a mixed day for the major Asian currency markets:

  • AUDUSD fell 0.00944 or -1.34% to hit 0.69314.
  • NZDUSD dropped 0.0065 or -1.03% to hit 0.62660.
  • USDJPY rose 1.360 or 1.03% to hit 132.903.
  • USDCNY edged down 0.02295 or -0.34% to hit 6.76135.

Precious metals:

l Gold fell by $4.74/t. or -0.27% to 1765.21

l Silver fell by $0.303/t. ounces or -1.49% to 20.006

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Monetary base (y/y) decreased from 3.9% to 2.8%.

South Korea:

CPI (YoY) (July) increased from 6.0% to 6.3%

CPI (MoM) (July) down from 0.6% to 0.5%

Australia:

Building permits (MoM) (June) decreased from 11.2% to -0.7%.

Housing loans (MoM) fell from 2.1% to -3.3%

Investments in housing finance (MoM) decreased from 0.9% to -6.3%.

The number of approved private houses (June) increased from -2.1% to 1.2%.

Some economic news for today:

India:

Exports (USD) (July) remained unchanged at $35.24 billion.

Imports (USD) (July) remained the same at 66.26 billion USD.

The trade balance (July) decreased from 31.02 billion to -31.02 billion.

Hong Kong:

Retail sales (YoY) (June) increased from -1.7% to -1.2%

Australia:

RBA interest rate decision (August) raised from 1.35% to 1.85%

Commodity prices (YoY) fell from 29.2% to 14.1%

New Zealand:

The GlobalDairyTrade Price Index remains unchanged at -5.0%.

EUROPE/EMEA:

The Bank of England is expected to make its biggest rate hike in 27 years this week, scaling back some of the £895bn ($1.1tn) stimulus it has provided over the past decade. The move will accelerate a historic tightening of monetary policy to quell the worst surge in inflation in 40 years. Gov. Andrew Bailey and his colleagues have warned prices could rise 11% this year, well above his 2% target. The investor sees a 70% chance that his benchmark BOE will rise by 0.5 points to 1.75%. This is the highest rate since the 2009 global financial crisis. Most economists are seeing a move of this magnitude again this week, but some economists say Morgan Stanley and NatWest Markets are down 4 points, citing heightened recession risk. say high quality.

There was a negative day on the main European stock markets:

l CAC 40 fell 27.06 points or -0.42% to 6409.80.

l The FTSE 100 fell 4.31 points, or -0.06%, to 7,409.11.

l DAX 30 fell 30.43 points or -0.23% to 13,449.20.

Today was a mixed day in the major European currency markets:

  • EURUSD fell 0.00834 or -0.81% to hit 1.01803.
  • GBPUSD fell 0.00726 or -0.59% to hit 1.21811.
  • USDCHF rose 0.00687 or 0.72% to hit 0.95637.

Some economic news from Europe today:

GREAT BRITAIN:

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (July) down from 0.2% to 0.1%

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (July) increased from 10.7% to 11.0%

Switzerland:

SECO consumer climate (Q3) decreased from -18 to -28

PMI procure.ch (July) down from 59.1 to 58.0

Spain:

The change in unemployment in Spain increased from -42.4 thousand to 3.2 thousand.

The consumer confidence index in Spain fell from 65.8 to 55.5.

USA/AMERICANS:

Retailers in America are expanding despite fears of inflation and recession, a new study has found. America’s largest mall owner, Simon Property Group, said its malls and outlets had a 93.9% occupancy rate in June this year, up from 01.8% last year. The group said places like Florida and Los Vegas are fueling recovery where tourists want to spend. In 2022, US retailers opened 4,432 stores compared to 1,954 closed. The retail industry was able to add 68 new stores last year, a significant improvement.

The “Great Retirement” may still be going on in the US as 4.2 million people quit their jobs in June. There were about 10.7 million new job openings in June, up from 11.3 million a month earlier, but up 50% from the previous year. There are currently 1.8 job openings for every unemployed American. People seek better jobs and use the shortage of workers to their advantage. The number of new employees reached 6.4 million, offsetting the number of layoffs. The unemployment rate remained stable at 3.6% in June.

US Market Closing:

  • The Dow was down 402.23 points or -1.23% to 32,396.17.
  • The S&P 500 was down 27.44 points, or -0.67%, at 4091.19.
  • The Nasdaq fell 20.22 points, or -0.16%, to 12,348.76.
  • Russell 2000

Closing the Canadian Market:

Brazil Market Closing:

ENERGY:

Oil markets have had a mixed day today:

l Crude oil rose $0.55/bbl. or 0.59% to 94.501.

l Brent crude rose $0.49/bbl, or 0.49%, to $100.320.

l Natural gas fell $0.526/mbtu, or -6.35%, to 7.7664.

l Gasoline rose $0.0623/gallon or 2.08% to 3.0588.

l Heating oil was down $0.067/gal or -1.95% to 3.3799.

The above data was collected around 2:26 pm EST on Tuesday.

l Commodity price leaders: gasoline (2.08%), potatoes (2.70%), orange juice (1.23%) and rhodium (1.74%).

l Top losers: palladium (-6.07%), rapeseed (-5.75%), oats (-6.75%) and natural gas (-6.35%).

The above data was collected around 2:33 pm EST on Tuesday.

CONNECTION:

Japan 0.175% (-1 bp), 2-s. US 3.07% (+0.164%), 10s USA 2.7392% (+13.42 bp); USA 30s 2.99% (+0.064%), Bunds 0.7820% (+2.1 bp), France 1.3790% (+3.3 bp), Italy 3.031% (+4 .5 b.p.), Turkey 17.00% (+0 b.p.), Greece 2.957% (+0 b.p.) 3.9 b.p.), Portugal 1.887% (+10 b.p.). P.); Spain 1.934% (+7.7 bp) and UK gilts 1.8660% (+5.8 bp).