If we take GDP as the determinant NBER defines business cyclesHere’s what the picture will look like (normalized to the middle of the fourth quarter):
Figure 1: Nonfarm payrolls (bold dark blue), Bloomberg Consensus 1 August (blue+), civil sector employment (orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in 2012, $ (bold green) , production and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue) and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), official GDP ahead of Q2 2022 (blue bars) , all logs are normalized to 2021M11=0 . Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA via FRED, IHS Markit (née Macroeconomic Advisors) (issue 08/01/2022), NBER and author’s calculations.
The six plotted series are those used by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, in addition to BEA’s official GDP and IHS Markit’s monthly GDP (not currently listed). Of the six key indicators of employment in the non-agricultural wage bill (in black) and personal income excluding transfers, more weight is given.