New home cancellations spiked in the second quarter

in Estimated risk per 05.08.2022 14:06:00

Today in the Calculated Risk Real Estate newsletter: New home cancellations spiked in the second quarter

An excerpt from the letter:

First, a few quotes from some of the SEC filings for the second quarter:

“We believe the recent 2022 interest rate hike has fueled buyer concerns, affordability concerns and an increase in cancellations,” Taylor Morrison, Q2 SEC filing.

“The scale and speed of this recent rate hike caused many buyers to pause and reconsider their home purchases, resulting in lower gross demand and more cancellations in the second quarter,” MDC Holdings Q2 SEC report.

“In the second quarter of 2022, the number of new orders in many of our markets declined, and in the second quarter of 2022 we experienced a higher-than-usual cancellation rate,” LGI Homes Q2 SEC report.
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Appropriate credit limitHere is a table of selected public developers and the current cancellation rate (I’m still collecting data). There is some seasonality in cancellation rates.

Disclaimer: Cancellation rates are taken from SEC filings only, and while believed to be reliable, they are not guaranteed.

Cancellation rates clearly increased in the second quarter.

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